RELIGION, PARTY POLITICS AND ELECTIONS IN NIGERIA: A HISTORICAL REVIEW
RELIGION, PARTY POLITICS AND ELECTIONS IN NIGERIA: A HISTORICAL REVIEW
By Rikwense Muri
Studying history enables us to develop better understanding of the world in which we live. Building knowledge and understanding of historical events and trends, especially over the past century, enables us to develop a much greater appreciation for current events today. Studying history helps us understand and grapple with complex questions and dilemmas by examining how the past has shaped (and continues to shape) global, national, and local relationships between societies and people.
The purpose of this study is to enlighten people especially political stakeholders from Taraba State to be mindful of the resurgence of religious narratives in our volatile political arena sponsored by the leadership of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), Taraba State Chapter and the Taraba State Muslim Council to polarize our people towards 2023 elections. Knowing the role religion have played in our political history will shape our response and approach towards the influence of our religious leaders in our political history. Because history gives us the tools to analyze and explain problems in the past, it positions us to see patterns that might otherwise be invisible in the present – thus providing a crucial perspective for understanding (and solving!) current and future problems.
Special appreciation to Prof. Hakeem Anapajo for his 2015 work "POLITICS AND THE PULPIT: The Rise and Decline of Religion in Nigeria’s 2015 Presidential Elections," which formed major part of this study and findings to guide us in the political arena.
Studies have proven that Nigerians are amongst the most religious people in the world. A Global Attitudes Survey by the Pew Research Center in 2015, revealed that Nigerians are the ninth most religious peoples in the world, with 88% positive responses from them that ‘religion plays a very important role in their lives’. Similarly, a 2005 survey conducted by the BBC World Service found that 85% of Nigerians ‘trusted religious leaders and a similar proportion were willing to give them more power’. With Christianity and Islam as the most widely recognised religions in Nigeria, mosques and churches are a common sight on every street throughout the country.
Given its effectiveness in identity formation, political mobilisation, and regime legitimacy, religion has been highly entrenched in Nigerian politics. This is more visible during election seasons as politicians characteristically, but deceptively, make use of religious rhetoric as a powerful instrument to mobilise voters, which has often led to incidents of religious conflict.
This may be the reason why many believe that Africans are the only race that is ready and willing to sacrifice meritocracy, National development and progress to favour protection of tribal and religious loyalty despite the recycling consequences before us since independence. Many African societies are yet to proof the the statement accredited to the former South African Apartheid leader Pieter Willem Botha, "Black people cannot rule themselves because they don’t have the brain and mental capacity to govern a society … Give them guns, they would kill themselves; Give them power, they will steal all the government money; Give them independence and democracy; they will use it to promote tribalism, ethnicity, bigotry, hatred, killings, and wars!”
Religion has played a major role right from the early days of elections in Nigeria. This is more apparent in the northern part of the country, given the influential role religion plays in its social system. Religion took a central role in the ideology and membership profile of the first political parties that emerged in the 1950s, following the concession of the colonial government to the nationalists’ demands for wider political participation. The three major northern political parties that emerged – the Northern People’s Congress (NPC), the Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU) and the United Middle Belt Congress (UMBC) – displayed a religious character. This was especially true of the Northern People’s Congress (NPC), which was the most popular party in the region and was heavily influenced by Islam. According to Dudley (1968, p.143), the party’s ‘Islamic influence in winning mass support can hardly be underestimated’ because the party itself was under the leadership of Muslim leaders including Ahmadu Bello (the Sardauna of Sokoto and founder of Jama’atu Nasril Islam) and Sultan of Sokoto (the de-facto leader of Nigerian Muslims who was the patron of the party).
Furthermore, according to Dudley the party was seen as representing a consensus of the Muslim community (Ijma), and refusal to accept the consensus of the community is considered heretical according to Islamic principles. Thus it is not surprising that the party enjoyed tremendous support among the Muslim majority, and for this reason consistently won a majority of the parliamentary seats in the pre- and post-independence elections.
The NEPU, although it was the first political party in northern Nigeria, later became the strongest opposition to the NPC in the Muslim-populated areas of the northern region. Its major aim was the creation of a pro-masses social structure that would challenge the reign of the Fulani aristocrats, thus claiming the identity of a party representing the interest of the Talakawa (the down-trodden) of society. Given that the NPC was associated with the upper strata of the Muslim-dominated society, the NEPU drew its membership from the lower class, mostly constituting the teachers of the local Madrasah and members of the Tijjaniyyah brotherhood – facilitated by the historical conflict between the Qadriyyah (with historical connection to the Sultanate of Sokoto under Usman dan Fodio) and Tijjaniyyah (led by the Emir of Kano Alhaji Muhammadu Sanusi) Sufi brotherhoods. Indeed, this generated increased intra-religious conflicts and, most especially, the state persecution of prominent Tijjanniyah members. It was in the midst of this crisis that the Emir of Kano was compelled to resign from office and forced into exile in 1963.
Another major party opposed to the dominance of the NPC was the United Middle Best Congress (UMBC) whose emergence was conspicuously driven by Christians in the non-Muslim areas, otherwise known as the Middle Belt region. The party was a product of the protest associations and parties created by Christians in the Middle Belt against a perceived Hausa-Fulani Islamic hegemony especially through the instrumentality of the NPC. The UMBC emerged following the merger of the Middle Zone League (MZL) and Middle Belt People’s Party (MBPP). These parties derived their sources from the Northern Nigeria Non-Muslim League created with the aid of Christian missions ‘to counter Islamic expansionist moves’ . Thus, the UMBC, according to an NPC member, ‘is only an ideology infused by the Christian missionaries against the expansion of the Moslems in Northern Nigeria’.
Expectedly, this gave the party some electoral advantage in the Christianpopulated parts of the northern region. Indeed, the influence of religion in the party formation and voting pattern was not restricted to northern Nigeria. Kukah and Falola (1996, p.87) showed that a Muslim party, the United Muslim Party (UMP), was established in Lagos in 1953 with the aim of contesting elections and to wrest power from the ruling Action Group (AG). However, the party was not successful in its ambition as it was unable to attract established Muslim politicians in the AG to its fold. For this reason, the party could not win any seats in the 1954, 1956 and 1959 elections. In 1957 Muslims formed another political party, the National Muslim League (NML), in protest against the perceived anti-Islamic activities of the AG’s government in the western region.
Given the NML mission and increasing popularity amongst Muslims in the western region, the AG actually felt threatened by its existence, which was considered capable of reducing the electoral support of the ruling party, particularly in the 1959 general elections. The NML, having changed its name to National Emancipation League (NEL) following criticisms of its use of religion for political mobilisation, entered into an alliance with the NPC. According to Kukah and Falola (1996, p.90), even though the party was unable to neutralise the dominance of the AG, given its failure in the 1959 elections, it was able to represent a formidable opposition to Awolowo’s AG in the western region.
In the Second Republic religion did not disappear from electoral politics. This was despite attempts by the government to discourage religion-driven parties with the constitutional provision that no political party could carry the identity of any ethnic or religious groups. It should be recalled that the Second Republic was preceded by an intense debate over the inclusion of a provision for a Federal Sharia Court of Appeal in the draft constitution at Constitutional Assembly in 1977/78, which culminated in major rivalry between Muslims and Christians. Clearly, this environment created an avenue for the manipulation of religious texts and for the faithful to garner votes. The most popular parties, including the National People’s Party (NPN), Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), People’s Redemption Party (PRP), and the Nigeria’s People’s Party (NPP), were associated with either Christianity or Islam. For example, the NPN, being a duplication of the old NPC, was seen as a product of the aristocratic Fulani Muslims in the north because of the nature of its leadership and popular base. The PRP was associated with the Tijjaniyyah brotherhood given its closeness to the old NEPU, while it gained its electoral strength in Kano and Kaduna with a considerably higher presence of the brotherhood. The UPN and NPP were perceived more as Christian parties owing to their leadership and areas of influence (Oloyede 1987). It should be noted, however, that in the western region there were notable Muslims in the UPN and also Christians in the NPN, as the Yoruba are known for a liberal approach towards both Christianity and Islam. Yet it was still a prevalent perception in some sections among the Yoruba that UPN was antiIslam. For example, Muslim members of the NPN in Oyo State were proficient at using campaign slangs and songs to discourage Muslims from voting for the UPN, following their classification of that party as leading to Jahannum (hell-fire). In the eastern region the church campaigned vigorously for NPP which greatly contributed to the party’s success in the region.
In the Third Republic, research indicates that there was some religious dimension to the political process. This was despite the popular belief that religion had been insignificant in the 1993 presidential elections following the MuslimMuslim ticket (Muslim presidential and vice-presidential candidates) advanced by the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which was massively supported at the ballot box across the country. It was reported that Christians under the banner of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) in the north actually threatened to boycott the elections if the candidates presented by the SDP and National Republican Convention (NRC) were Muslims. For this reason, some Christian presidential aspirants (including S.L Slifu, a former Secretary-General of the northern branch of CAN, and Jerry Gana) were encouraged to join the race chiefly to challenge the Muslim aspirants. However, they were unable to succeed at the primaries. Furthermore, after the military regime annulled the presidential election won by Moshood Abiola, it was reported that Yoruba Muslims actually lobbied the Hausa-Fulani Muslims requesting the Sultan of Sokoto to use the influence of his office to condemn the annulment. Rather than condemn the act, the Sultan, Ibrahim Dasuki, only urged Abiola to ‘accept the annulment as “an act of God".
The transition programme initiated by General Abdulsalami Abubakar in 1998 kick-started a journey into the Fourth Republic. The new republic, just like the previous ones, has not been devoid of religion during elections. Clearly, this can be meaningfully connected to the politics around the emergence of Olusegun Obasanjo as President in 1999. The emergence of Obasanjo, a southern Christian, was the outcome of an agreement amongst the political elite, spearheaded by the northern military leaders and influential political elite. This was to pacify the Yoruba after the injustice done to Abiola over the annulment of the 1993 presidential elections and his subsequent incarceration, which led to his death in prison in 1998. Shortly after Obasanjo assumed power, the northern Muslim elite suspected attempts to Christianise the presidency by his Christian aides and certain groups close to him. This group of people, dubbed the ‘Theocratic Class’ by Ebenezer Obadare (2006), was driven by the increasingly influential Pentecostal Church. They gave President Obasanjo the image of a ‘born-again’ president and defined him as ‘a personal embodiment of divine response to their prayers and prophecies for the nation’. According to some, the fear nurtured by the northern Muslims over this development was partly responsible for the introduction of the Sharia system in twelve states of the Muslim-majority areas in the north with the aim of countering the apparent moves of an emergent Christian power bloc.
The northern elites further advanced vehement moves to wrest power from the southern Christians. This move reached a crescendo after the sudden death of Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2010 who was unable to complete his term as the president. His death necessitated the succession of his southern Christian vicepresident, Goodluck Jonathan, as the president in 2010, in accordance with the Nigerian constitution. Jonathan later ran for presidential office and won in 2011. It is instructive that Jonathan’s decision to stand for the office of president was met with total resistance from the northern politicians who saw the move as a violation of an existing zoning formula in the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which was supposed to favour a northern candidate. It was also more upsetting for the northern politicians that Jonathan was strongly supported by former President Obasanjo, who had gathered enough power to exert tremendous influence in the PDP and in the country.
Therefore, this situation was used as a reason to mobilise Muslims in the north against Jonathan’s candidature in the 2011 elections after he defeated Atiku Abubakar, who was seemingly the ‘Northern Consensus Candidate’ at the PDP primaries (Onapajo 2012). The religionisation of the 2011 electoral process was further strengthened by the emergence of Muhammadu Buhari as the presidential candidate of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). Buhari, who had been labelled a Muslim fundamentalist by his opponents because of his positive remarks on the Sharia legal system and his Islamic devotion, enjoyed obsessive following by Muslim youth and clerics, not only in the north but also in the southern region. Therefore, ensuring the success of his presidential ambition was considered a religious duty. To that extent, any act of opposition to Buhari’s candidature by a Muslim was even considered heretical by some Muslim leaders and groups.
Goodluck Jonathan also created for himself the image of an oppressed Christian who needed the support of his brethren to win the presidential election. He regularly attended church programmes in order to identify himself with the large Christian population and mobilise votes to realise his ambition. The most notable was his visit in December 2010 to an annual event of the Redeemed Christian (Pentecostal) Church, ‘The Holy Ghost Night’, which provides an avenue for one of the largest Christian gatherings in Nigeria. He knelt before the church’s highly influential pastor, Pastor Enoch Adeboye, ostensibly to pray for the nation, but in fact to advance his political ambition. Some other church pastors also conspicuously campaigned for him in their churches. For example, it was reported that a Lagos-based Pentecostal pastor, Paul Adefarasin, of the House on the Rock Church, urged his followers to unanimously support a Christian presidential candidate in the 2011 elections.
Therefore, the 2011 presidential election seemed to be a major contest between a Christian and Muslim candidate. The pattern of voting clearly confirmed this assertion as it was apparently characterised by the Christian-Muslim divide in the country. In the Christian-dominated areas of the south and the Middle Belt, Jonathan had a landslide victory over Buhari. On the other hand, Buhari was overwhelmingly voted for in the Muslim-dominated areas consisting of twelve states: Sokoto, Zamfara, Niger, Kano, Kebbi, Katsina, Bauchi, Kaduna, Jigawa, Borno, Gombe and Yobe. Though the result was controversial, Jonathan garnered a total 22 495 187 (58.89%) votes in 23 states of the federation over Buhari’s 12 214 853 (31.98%) which earned him victory (http://www.inecnigeria.org). Violent protests against this election outcome by youths in the north according to International Crisis Group, resulted in the deaths of about 800 people as well as arson attacks on worship centres.
In 2015, electoral politics were clearly an extension of the politics of the 2011 elections. The loss of that contest to Goodluck Jonathan reinforced the determination of the northern Muslims to ensure the emergence of someone from their community as the president in the 2015 elections. This agenda was easily adopted by other Muslims across the country as Jonathan’s government was increasingly seen as biased towards his Christian brethren. This is judged by his closeness to notable Christian leaders, especially Pastor Ayo Oritsejafor (the President of the CAN), who were regularly visible at the presidential villa and also wielded much political influence. Muslims also felt aggrieved by some policies of the government which were seen to be marginalising them. A notable example was their disenchantment with the composition of the National Political Reform Conference held in 2014, which had an unbalanced number of Muslim representatives in comparison with their Christian counterparts.
This triggered a protest visit by the Muslim community, led by the Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Muhammadu Sa’ad Abubakar, to President Jonathan in March 2014 to lodge a formal complaint about the situation (Premium Times, 26 March 2014). Although Jonathan assuaged their feelings, denying any deliberate attempt to marginalise the community and promising that the imbalance would be corrected, the Muslim community felt deceived and aggrieved that no substantial effort was made by the government to address their concerns. This is clear in the following statement by Ishaq Oloyede, the Secretary-General of the National Supreme Council of Islamic Affairs (NSCIA), that: "The Muslim community met with the then president [Jonathan]. He saw that the composition was flawed. He admitted that it was an error and promised heaven and earth. He never did anything to rectify the error."
Boko Haram violence is another prominent issue that has contributed to the religionisation of the 2015 electoral politics. This is because violence takes the form of religious terrorism when the Boko Haram group claims to be on a mission to Islamise Nigeria, based on its own interpretation of Islam. A major consequence of the Boko Haram attacks, therefore, is the deterioration of an already bitter Christian-Muslim relationship in the country. On the one hand, Christians perceive the Boko Haram insurgents as a sort of ‘Muslim army’ that aims to actualise a long-term Muslim agenda to Islamise Nigeria. In addition, some Christian leaders alleged that the entire incidence of Boko Haram was actually orchestrated by northern Muslims in order to force a Christian president out of power against the backdrop of the 2011 elections. Thus, they consistently claim that Christians and churches are the main targets of the deadly group.
On the other hand, a popular view within the Muslim community was that Boko Haram was a plot by Christians to tarnish the image of Islam and of the Muslim elites who were opposed to Jonathan’s presidency. They claimed that many incidents of Boko Haram attacks had been discovered to be connected to Christians and their leadership. Furthermore, some Muslims claimed that there was a ‘Federal Government Boko Haram’, suggesting that Jonathan’s presidency was behind some Boko Haram-related attacks aimed at preventing voting in the largely Muslim-dominated North East, in order to decimate the electoral chances of the Muslim candidate. Indeed, this altercation nearly pushed the country to the brink of a religious war as the leadership of both religious groups threatened reprisal attacks against each other.
Clearly, this political climate created a major religious division which was useful to the political elite in preparation for the elections. This made religion a very useful tool in the hands of the political elites in the electoral process. The following sub-sections provide an analysis of how the political elite went about using religion as an instrument for voter mobilisation in the pre-election period.
Despite the pervasiveness of religion in this pre-election period, one cannot successfully argue that religion was a major factor in the voting pattern. The Muslim-dominated northern areas in the North East and North West did vote massively for Buhari, while the largely Christian areas in the South East and South South voted predominantly for Jonathan, and this has something of an ethnic dimension. The pattern of voting in two major geo-political zones with a large Christian population, North Central and South West, is instructive for analysis here. In the North Central, which is mostly composed of the northern Christian-populated states – Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa and Kogi States – the APC candidate beat the PDP candidate by over 25%. This is unexpected in those areas especially when considering the votes Jonathan (as a Christian candidate) recorded there in the 2011 elections). In addition, when considering the results at state levels it is striking that in Benue and Kogi States, Buhari earned more votes than Jonathan by 18.8% and 43.3% respectively. In some other predominantly Christian-populated states, including Plateau and Taraba where Jonathan recorded more votes, the margin was surprisingly narrow (22% and 16% respectively). Also in the South West, with a seemingly mixed population of Muslims and Christians, there was a margin of 25.1% in favour of the APC candidate. With this result, there is reason to suggest that factors other than religion played significant roles in the voting choice of the people.
Two reasons may account for this pattern of voting which saw a reduced role of religion:
Firstly, pre-election surveys conducted in some states that produced surprising outcomes, as indicated above, clearly show that despite attempts at politicising their worship centres, voters’ decisions were based on the performance records of the presidential candidates, especially on issues concerning security, corruption, and employment. For example, a number of Christians in Plateau State interviewed in a BBC report suggested that the religious affiliation of the candidate would not be primary in their voting decisions; rather their credibility would be a major determinant. According to a Christian voter, ‘If the Christian leader does not have what it takes to provide good leadership, I will not vote for him merely because he is a Christian’. Another respondent stated that ‘… the way things are going people are beginning to downplay the role of religion in deciding who you vote. I hear people talking a lot about credibility’.
It should be noted that the Jonathan administration in particular lost its popularity following its poor management of Boko Haram violence and other related ethno-religious violence in the northern region, which significantly affected his fellow Christians. On the other hand, there were increased expectations that Buhari, as a retired general in the Nigerian Army with a record of dealing with similar terrorist groups in the 1980s as a military head-of-state,2 would handle the situation better.
Furthermore, Jonathan lost credibility in the face of a deluge of corruption allegations against his cabinet members, about which he was passive. A good example is the allegation made by the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, that a sum of USD 20 billion from the oil revenue account went missing on the watch of the Minister of Petroleum, Diezani Alison-Madueke. Rather than institute a convincing investigation into the allegation, President Jonathan suspended the whistle-blower (Sanusi Lamido) on some fabricated charges. On the other hand, Buhari was seen not only as being personally free of corruption but also as an anti-corruption crusader because of his record as the military head of state between 1983 and 1985, when he significantly addressed the problem of corruption and all forms of indiscipline in the country through the policy of ‘War Against Indiscipline’ (WAI).
Secondly, the campaign strategy of the PDP against the APC candidate based on his personality and religion was apparently counter-productive, as it ended up pitting one religion against the other. This strategy was considered inflammatory as it could have pushed the country to the point of a religious war.
This position is also admitted by the leadership of the PDP after it was accused by the campaign team of causing Jonathan’s failure at the elections. The Publicity Secretary of the party responded that: "We (National Working Committee) did not lead the party to failure. We were not involved in the campaigns and our advice was ignored … in 2003, President Obasanjo ran an election against OdumegwuOjukwu in the South-East. In 2007, Yar’Adua ran election against Ojukwu. I can tell you, if PDP had engaged in name calling or abused Ojukwu in any way, PDP would have lost the elections in the South-East."
This shows that Nigerian voters are gradually becoming more sophisticated. With the outcome of the 2015 presidential elections, one can argue that the inclination to vote for visceral reasons may be on the decline. More voters displayed their preference for the performance capacity of the presidential candidates, rather than their religious or ethnic backgrounds. In a liberal democracy, a quality and rational voter is certainly a useful criterion for the development of democracy.
That may be the why the 2019 elections had little emphasis on religion but on performance of the incumbent, security, job creation and national integration. Although one may argue that religion played a little role in 2019 because both candidates of APC and PDP were muslims from the north, the reality of the matter is religion is loosing its grip in the political arena in Nigeria looking at the fact that the leadership which emerged on the basis of their religion have not impacted much in the society as expected. Many are disappointed in those who won elections on the basis of religion or ethnicity. To me this is progress.
Although this does not necessarily indicate the death of identity factors in elections, it suggests that incumbents and parties will pay more attention to delivering on their mandate in order to be re-elected, rather than having an easy path into office courtesy of their religion or ethnicity.
CONCLUSION
Nigeria’s status as one of the most religious countries in the world ensures that the connection between its religion and politics is relevant to the literature on this subject. The involvement of religion in Nigerian politics relates to its use as an instrument for mobilising votes in elections. As shown in this study, the history of Nigeria is replete with the invocation of religious sentiments for electoral gains. Clearly, the 2015 presidential elections provide another significant example of how the political elite attempt to manipulate religion and influence the faithful to gather votes and win elections. As such, this study of the politics around the elections is about how the faithful were mobilised at their places of worship in order to win the elections. This was clearly manifested in the campaign strategies of the major contestants for presidential office. Furthermore, by analysing the voting patterns, this paper demonstrates that despite this strategy, religious sentiments had minimal effect on the voting choice of the electorate. The voters instead made their choice based on the performance records of the presidential candidates. This has positive implications for democratic development in Nigeria. It shows that the voters are indeed becoming more rational and less sentimental at the polling station, despite the manipulations of political elites.
Amb Rikwense Muri
He is currently the National Director, sponsorship and Collaboration, Polling Units Ambassadors of Nigeria (PUAN). He hails from Taraba State.
07035238019, rikmuri@gmail.com
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